Wolf Mancomes out thisThursday, January 16, and seems poised to win the weekend at the box office. But that’s nothing new for Leigh Whannell.
WhileWolf Manis only Whannell’s fourth film as a director, he’s writtenhorrorfilms that have defined the genre in the 21st century.
Whannell has a knack for taking low-budget films and turning them into smashes at thebox office. That translated to his directorial efforts, too.
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The Box Office Prediction ForWolf Man
Box Office TheoryhasWolf Manearning$20-$30 millionover its 3-day opening weekend. For comparison, they predictedDen of Thieves 2: Panterawould earn between $14-$19 million and the final total was $15.5. They were also correct onA Complete Unknown($11.6 million) andBabygirl($4.5 million).
In 2024,Mean Girlshad the biggest opening weekend in January with $28.6M. In 2023,Avatar: The Way of Watercontinued its end of year dominance by claiming every weekend in January. It took until February 3 forKnock at the Cabinto finally steal the crown (with $14M). In 2022,Screamdebuted with $30 million. 2020 sawBad Boys For Lifepull in $62M.
So January tends to be won by established IPs.Mean Girlsis an adaptation of the Broadway musical based on the 2004 film.Way of Waterwas a long-awaited sequel.Screamwas a sequel. AndBad Boy For Lifewas a sequel.
Okay, yes, the werewolf character is definitely an established IP. But this is a standalone interpretation of the figure. It doesn’t have an established fanbase to draw from. Which makes its potential box office all the more impressive. The last time we had an original picture win a weekend in January wasRide Alongin 2013.
Why We HopeWolf ManIs A Huge Success
I was so impressed withThe Invisible Manthat I’m really rooting forWolf Manto be great. I know Whannell is one of the bestsmall-budgetconceptualists of all-time, but…what would happen if someone gave him a big budget? It’s possible he loses his magic, that trying to scale up from what he has known becomes a disaster. But what if it’s not a disaster?
Art Aster had a $10M budget forHereditary. It made $87.8M. He had a $9M budget forMidsommar. It made $48M. Then A24 gave him $35M forBeau Is Afraid. It only made $11.5M. And, sure, a lot of people didn’t like it. But I thinkBeau is Afraidis a masterpiece-level work that will gain renown as the years pass.
I’d love to see what Leigh Whannell could do with $35M. Or what he would do with $100M. Look at what Robert Eggers did withNosferatu.IfWolf Manis another success, which it seems poised to be, hopefully we’re one step closer to someone giving Whannell all the money to make whatever he wants.
